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991.
We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014 相似文献
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Mark Lawrence 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2014,25(4):843-857
This article modifies the associations made by historians and political scientists of Spanish guerrilla warfare with revolutionary insurgency. First, it explains how the guerrilla phenomenon moved from a Leftist to a reactionary symbol. Second, it compares the insurgency and counter-insurgency features of the Carlist War (1833–1840) with those of the better-known Peninsular War (1808–1814). Third, it shows how erstwhile guerrilla leaders during the Carlist War made their expertise available to the counter-insurgency, in a socio-economic as well as military setting. This article revises the social banditry paradigm in nineteenth-century Spain in the under-researched context of Europe bloodiest nineteenth-century civil war. 相似文献
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目标选择是军事计划的关键要素之一。基于马尔科夫决策方法,解决具有复杂目标间关联的多阶段目标选择问题。使用与或树描述目标体系各层状态间的影响关联,并以目标体系整体失效为求解目的,建立了基于离散时间MDP的多阶段打击目标选择模型。在LRTDP算法基础上提出一种启发式方法,通过判断从当前目标体系状态到达体系失效状态的演化过程中的可能资源消耗和失败概率,来提供对当前状态的评估值,该方法能有效排除问题搜索空间中不能到达体系失效目的的中间状态,压缩了由于目标间复杂关联而增长的巨大状态空间。用实验验证了该方法有效性,实验结果表明,该方法直观实用,对目标间具有复杂关联关系的目标打击决策有一定参考价值。 相似文献
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针对卫星导航系统中伪距观测量存在缓变伪距偏差,导致定位精度下降的问题,提出了一种基于滑动积累的抗差扩展卡尔曼滤波方法。该方法在抗差扩展卡尔曼滤波算法的基础上,通过滑动窗口内多个历元残差矢量的累积,增大标准化残差矢量的伪距偏差,来提高对缓变伪距偏差故障的抗差能力。仿真表明,该方法能有效消除或者减弱微小伪距偏差和缓慢增长伪距偏差造成的位置误差,与传统抗差扩展卡尔曼滤波算法比较,定位精度得到明显改善。 相似文献
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现代高性能反舰导弹是舰艇末端防御的最大威胁,而舰载弹炮结合近程武器系统为舰艇的末端防御提供了一种有效的途径。分析了舰载弹炮结合近程武器系统的作战使用和主要特点,针对海上空袭武器的特点,重点研究了增强系统抗饱和攻击能力的设计方法,并探讨了舰载弹炮结合近程武器系统在现代海战中的使用方向。 相似文献